CheXpert · Pleural effusion
8 single answers. 52 unresolved.
A frozen external model, expert-consensus references, 60 calibration studies and 60 separate evaluation studies. Every study still requires a radiologist’s reading.
Expected reference-exclusion risk across studies, including unresolved outputs.
Answer sets missing the expert reference. Among the 8 single answers: 0 errors.
4.92% adjusted calibration quantity: (2 misses + 1) / (60 studies + 1).
The target does not bound error specifically among single answers. Zero observed misses is not zero underlying risk; the descriptive Wilson interval is 0–6.02%. Neither result validates autonomous reporting or clinical benefit.
Assumptions, image sources & the comparison still needed
The formal claim concerns expected loss over calibration and a new study under exchangeability, with a frozen scorer and bounded monotone loss family. It is not a 95% bound for every fitted rule. Multiple views are aggregated per study; repeated studies may still share a patient. Upstream scorer selection on the benchmark has not been independently ruled out.
The six visible chest-X-ray examples are NIH ChestX-ray14 images with fresh model scores. They are not members of the CheXpert benchmark, and its guarantee does not transfer to them. The public research package reproduces aggregate calculations; the walkthrough replays archived benchmark scores.
A product evaluation should compare existing checks, a tuned confidence/abstention alternative and EyeTrustAI on the same separate patient-grouped cohort. Tune on development data, freeze the methods, then compare at similar output or error rates. A reader study would then measure time, corrections and reliance on AI. Those studies have not been performed here.
Inspect the method and assumptions ↗︎